The report also estimated the dollar value of potential damage to residential and commercial structures from the storm.
This year, researchers estimated that the country could expect to see annual losses of $18.5 billion as a result of hurricane-force winds, rising to nearly $20 billion in 2053. In Florida alone, the study found.
The group’s models show that most of the mid-Atlantic region will experience an increased risk of damaging winds. For example, states such as Kentucky, Illinois and Tennessee can see winds peaking at 87 mph to 97 mph during strong storms, according to the researchers.
Ed Kearns, First Street Foundation’s chief data officer, said, “As a strong hurricane approaches the coast and is cut off from its fuel source of warm ocean water, the stronger the storm, the deeper into its interior it can penetrate.” has a better chance.” “So, you start showing the risks like in western Tennessee. There are some patterns where how far inland they went, I was surprised.
Scientists have said that although climate change is not expected to increase the number of hurricanes that form each year, it will intensify the number of storms that do form.
In Florida, the state most vulnerable to hurricanes, researchers also expect to see changes over the next 30 years. Kearns said models indicate the storm could make landfall in more northern areas of the state, such as Jacksonville.
“This change in hurricane location and strength in Florida alone could result in an increase of 2.5 million to 4.1 million Category 5 hurricanes in 2023,” the researchers wrote in the study.
First Street’s new projections focused on worsening winds, but studies have shown climate change will also bring more storms and increase the risk of catastrophic flooding. The organization previously conducted a similar analysis of changing U.S. flood risk over the coming decades, but those models included precipitation events other than hurricanes and river flooding.
The report was designed to quantify the financial impacts for all individual properties from tropical cyclones in the United States today and 30 years later, based on climate change projections.
Kearns said he hopes the analysis will raise awareness among businesses and property owners and help policymakers better prepare for the consequences of a changing climate.
“Compared to the historical location and severity of tropical cyclones, this next generation of hurricane strength will bring unavoidable financial impact and devastation that has not yet been priced into the market,” said Matthew Abbey, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation. ” in a statement.
The report used historical observations of hurricane formation, strength and landfall rate and included how these factors are affected by changes in sea surface temperature, sea level and atmospheric temperature in a warming climate. The group’s peer-reviewed model included 50,000 synthetic storm tracks that were used to measure how wind direction and speed would change under different future climate scenarios.
The new wind model adds to First Street’s collection of risk assessments, which include flood, fire and heat exposure risks for properties across the United States.